Carrying on the theme from recent posts, we have covered some of the most important points regarding making your betting more successful. Keeping a strict Bank Roll is incredibly important, being selective is very important, keeping a personal P/L is a must, having varied betting accounts is a must, you should never have just one or two accounts and expect to record the same P/L as your tipster, you really need 5-10 different bookmakers accounts to have a realistic chance of recording similar results, especially at current time with the variance in ew terms/BOG times/and market value.
Today I’m going to repeat a subject I’ve talked about for the last 10 years but most punters/gamblers seem to believe the opposite and that’s where they start off on the wrong foot. Timing is everything in getting off to a good start, so when is the best time to jump on board any tipster, well it’s simple. If the tipster has a proven history of P/L for you to use as a reference(any tipster who is worth following will have this) then the timing of when to join is quite simple. NEVER join up when the tipster is well in to a WINNING streak because you have missed a huge chunk of the profits already, no one knows how long it will continue but if they’ve recorded 50-60pts profit in the last few weeks and record 150-200 in a year then you have missed a huge % so sit it out, they will hit a quiet streak possibly a losing streak and that’s when you do join. If you start after 60pts profit and they continue for another week recording another 20pts before the inevitable downturn happens they lose 60pts in the next month you are now 40pts down for jumping on at the wrong time. Whereas if you had sat it out and watched them record that extra profit then the down turn and started after the -60pts it may well carry on for a short time before the obvious upturn starts. There is no exact science to this so it really is a gut feeling when the time is right. I see it all the time with my new sign ups, they surge when I have a winning run and the cancelations go through the roof when I’m losing it should be the other way round. In early August we were -35pts and cancellations were high, then went on a huge winning streak turning August in to a +32pts month and then September first 10 days was +68pts making a colossal 135pts profit in 4-5 weeks in that period sign ups went through the roof since the peak on 12th September we have gone on a terrible run of form losing most of those 68pts we were up in September and the cancelations have gone mad the last few days but from people who were signed up before the surge of winners so aren’t actually losing anything. I have never and will never understand the thinking behind this, if you have done the proper homework, you know what kind of prices and style of tipping the tipster does and you give up during a downturn then you should never have signed up in the first place as you clearly don’t understand how it works. If you join me expecting a full house in a Lucky 15 then again you never did your homework in 35 years of betting, twice I’ve had 4 from 4 but that’s not what I do, I aim to make a profit over the long term, short term losses have NEVER bothered me and never will as my staking plan allows for a huge long downturn before I’d even think about worrying. For me short term should be 5-6 months and long term means a year plus. Again there is no scientific point when things change so no one knows when poor runs will start or end and it’s the same with winning runs and that’s the whole purpose of the betting bank and the staking plan. Anyone who knows anything about gambling would tell you right now is the best time to be joining someone like me as you missed 60pts of downturn and anytime soon an upturn will start now it may not be today or tomorrow but it will come soon. Since racing resumed on June 1st I am just over 90pts up which for £10 stakes is a very tasty £900 you could easily be more than that as quite a few have been much bigger prices at some point after posting but in that time we have been on a real rollercoaster ride from June being in good profit with a good up hill climb then July into first 2 weeks of August of big drop off then mid August to mid September a massive upsurge and the mid September to now a big dip, it won’t be long until we start to climb up the next part of the ride but how long the down hill and how high the uphill will be nobody knows, when you get on the rollercoaster is the most important part of the ride, you’d never get on a rollercoaster at the peak of the climb, you should get on at the lowest point so just after the ride has reached the bottom. It still shocks me how many people get off the ride at the bottom of the dip just when you should be getting on but those that are on from the very beginning will have plenty of ups and downs and know that the ups far outway the downs over the LONGTERM!!!
Week 6… Q&A
Good morning over the last few weeks we have covered a number of different TOPICS from the most important subjects like Bank Roll Manangement to the importance of keeping a Personal P/L and not just going by mine, then we covered Betting accounts and a bit of my back ground of betting and gambling, then last weeks was all about Staking Plans. This week I’m answering a few of the questions put to me by members.
Q1. Can You Explain H’cap marks?
A1. H’cap marks are the allotted rating each horse is given usually after 3 starts or a win but in these new times you can get a h’cap mark after just 2 starts. So if you are given a mark of 76 on the flat then you can enter races that are categorized for your mark. So you can run in Class 4 0-85, 0-80 and even Class 5 0-75 provided the max number runners isn’t reached. As you progress your mark goes up so you run in higher class of race but equally as you under perform the h’capper might drop you a few lbs. So on the flat if you are rated 40-100 you are a h’capper running in Class 2 to Class 6 but once you reach 100+ you are considered good enough to run in Listed or even group races. Over jumps the ratings are slightly different ranging from a low of 70 to a high of 170+
Basically for Flat
Class 6 0-65
Class 5 0-75
Class 4 0-85
Class 3 0-95
Class 2 0-110
Class 5 0-105
Class 4 0-120
Class 3 0-135
Class 2 0-150
Q2. Why do you bet only in h’caps?
A2. 99.9% of all my selections come from h’caps but not just any h’caps as I don’t bet in Nurseries (2yo only) or very rarely bet in 3yo only h’caps mainly because there is so much guess work involved in them and as a rule I don’t watch many 2yo races so don’t know the form which then also impacts in to 3yo careers but equally a horse develops a huge amount between 2 and 3 so who has grown the most or strengthened or matured is all speculation and guess work. A very good 2yo doesn’t make them a good 3yo and vice versa. When I first got in to racing nearly all my bets were in sprints h’caps and that’s just a type of race I love. I do bet in all types and distances from the flat to hurdles and chases but for me a 20 runners 5 or 6 furlong h’cap is the ultimate puzzle to solve. Now group and listed races don’t appeal to me as betting races as the value is not usually there in the same way it is in a h’cap. This is only my opinion but I also feel you should specialise in a type of race as it makes the process a lot easier and for me in the better types of races there is nearly always a short priced one and doesn’t hold the same interest for me.
Q3. What is the process you use to make your selections?
A3. I won’t give away all my secrets but the process of going from a day’s racing with 5 meetings to final selections doesn’t take anywhere near the hours I see people talking about on twitter. As I have a predetermined race type I can look through an 8 race card and find the races of interest in 2mins so 5 meetings 40 races 10mins max. Then when I have the races I like the look of that can be anything from 1 to 20 races depending on the type of races we have that day. H’caps normally make up around 66% of the days racing so you need to be selective. One of my main criteria is looking for a race where the fav is likely to overbet as that already presents value in other runners. I always form my own markets on every race I bet in so I have a good idea of what kind of price I’m hoping to get on my final selection. There is a process I got through for all my runners which is basically a tix box process and the more ticks a selection gets the more I like it. This process can take anything from 2 mins to 20mins per race usually if its 2mins I’ve already determined there is no selection to be made and moved on. Once I have made my choice I will watch all there last 5 or 6 races back or any race from it’s past which is relevant to today as my eyes are the best form guide I can get. Now all this is done at least 24hrs in advance with flat usually 48hrs that way I’m always prepared. So today is Monday today’s 6 selections were made on Saturday afternoon and today I’ll be working on Wednesday’s cards. It’s the way I work Mondays selections made on Saturday, bet on Sunday then forget them and move on to Tuesday that way you don’t stress or worry about each individual bet you have and you certainly don’t chase if they all lose so be it we move on, too many punters/gamblers get obsessed by each individual selection, I don’t which ones win /lose/place is irrelevant to me.
Q4. Which research tools do you use?
A4. I use Attheraces website plus Racing post website and the RacingTv for video research plus Horseracebase but the best by a country mile is the geegeez website the data that site holds is staggering and very easy to use if you don’t already use the site then I strongly suggest you sign up for the free trials that Matt offers and have a play around.
Q5. How do you get your bets on still?
A5. Again this depends on the type of race, day of the week and strength of the market when placing bets. As discussed previously I have restrictions on many accounts but can still get £10 or £15 ew bets on with most firms but as this is my full time job if I have to shop around and place smaller bets with multiple firms then so be it.
Q6. If you are so successful why do you charge for the tips?
A6. As explained in the blog about myself, my life took a massive u-turn in March 2018 that was totally unexpected and life changing as a result I quickly realised I needed an income that was legitimate otherwise acquiring life essentials like a mortgage wouldn’t be possible. So I turned what was a hobby and something I had proven I was good at into a business with a legitimate income stream which would enable me to buy a house after my divorce a goal I achieved just 2 weeks ago. As a result of both the business being a success and the profit still flowing in I can keep my membership costs to a minimum and not charge the ridiculous amounts I see others charge.
If I haven’t answered your question then please email me with it as I have had literally hundreds of emails in recent weeks, I might have missed it or forgotten your question.
One Reply to “Timing + Q&A part 1”
Keep up the good work.