Good Morning
Two weeks ago we touched on the importance of maintaining a bank roll in order to make betting pay long term, now I know there are plenty of people who bet just to have fun and use it as a source of entertainment and that is absolutely fine as long as it’s kept fun and responsible. Never touch the rent money or the grocery money, but for those who take it all a little more seriously it is an essential tool you have to have in your bag in order to win and win regularly over the long term. In the last email which is still on your members page under Topics, we said how important being strict and controlled with your betting is and when it’s time to up the point value and when to withdraw some of the profit you have made. Well these are only cogs in the machine and one of the cogs thats drive the machine is Profit and Loss (P/L) but there is no point running your Bank Roll on the say so of someone else which brings us to the subject of this weeks email, the importance of maintaining your own personal P/L. The one I run on the website is purely a guide it is simple to follow and work out as it’s done completely on the advice that I put on the website , in July we finished -16.80pts to advised prices and place terms, but that doesn’t mean my own personal P/L is the same because it’s not. As so many bookmakers now operate hugely varied markets no one system will fit all and I would never be able to maintain a P/L that was equatable to everyone. Sometimes I advise the extra place at slightly lesser win odds and other times I advise the lower price with B365 as we get BOG and I expect him to drift. Quick Look at Ripon on Friday being a prime example of that the 9/2 with B365 was the lowest price on offer but the overall market told us that the prices were just too short so I would never have took 11/2 no BOG with another firm as it was very obvious he would be bigger, as it turned out he went off at 9/1, so in essence we did the right thing. If we take Thursday’s winning NAP which I personally backed at 18/1 before posting he had dropped to a top priced 12/1 which is the price I advised as the only firm I get BOG with B365 were only 9/1, now I couldn’t give up those 3 pts and never envisaged the drift he would take but what I do is watch the market closely all day, now I know we all can’t do that as you work, have children etc but to me this is my job, so if I can make more money from my bet then I will.
So my bet £50 EW at 18/1 Strictly Art returns £950 for the win and £275 for the place a total return of £1225 profit of £1125 where as once B365 went 25/1 if I cash out my original bet for a loss of £20 and get £80 back but reinvest that £80 at £40 EW at 25/1 with the possibility he could go off at even bigger odds then my £40 returns £1040 for the win and £290 for the place so £1330 in total for +£1250 on the bet less the £20 I lost for cashing out so £1230 profit making £105 more for my money for 5 minutes work. Obviously it doesn’t always work out but it’s well worth the time and effort in the long run. Yes this is an extreme and not everyone has the time to do it but to me this is my full time job. If by cashing out and rebacking I can make more money then I will and as a direct result my own personal P/L is so very different from the one on members website and it’s because there are so many different criteria nowadays that makes it so important you all keep your own. After last week’s winner I had several messages and emails saying how someone had backed it at 40/1 in running, someone else had backed him at 9/1 thinking they’d taken a bad price but ended up getting paid out at 20/1 whilst the official P/L only got 12/1. Throughout the month and with around 100 selections a month there are plenty of times when a point or 2 here and there add up to quite a dramatic difference in P/L just look at Amazing Red 40/1 R4 1/5 odds 7.4pts returned +5.4pts or 66/1 1/4 odds with B365 returns 17.5pts for profit od 15.50pts that’s 10.10pts difference in just one runner and in the month we have had 3 Winners and 19 place runners, so 22 opportunities for there to be slight variations. There is little point in running a strict B/R on the P/L on the website if you don’t get the same prices and place terms as advised. I appreciate not everyone has the time or the inclination to monitor there betting to the levels that I do but from the 22 win/place runners if you got just 1pt less on each one instead of being -16.8pts the official total for the month then you would be -38.8pts that’s a significant difference on the other hand if you got 1pt better then you’d actually have a made a small profit and as we have already shown Amazing Red could have been 10.10pts different alone and Strictly Art 12/1 is +15pts or at SP of 20/1 +25pts another 10pt difference which completely wipes out any losses in 2 of the 22 selections, the point being we could have 50-60pts between worst possible and best possible which would make a massive difference to your own P/L depending on where you figure on that scale. I have heard from a number of members since the month ended one finished -26pts another was -12pts so either side of the official website figures. What is becoming increasingly obvious is that prices are better the following day which could mean we are all throwing away some value but as my website and my following was built on night before and the majority of members want/need them the night before I don’t feel we can change that policy.
I hope this shows you the importance of personal P/L but also the advantages of monitoring the prices even after you have placed your bets, for me if cashing out and rebacking makes me an extra £10 then I’ll do it if I can as not all firms offer you the chance.
One question I do get asked a lot is about what place terms and prices are best for example is 16/1 1/4 odds 3 places or 14/1 1/5 odds 4 places but again for this there is no generic answer as number of runners, position in the market, my current form all contribute to the answer. If the difference is more pronounced say 20/1 3 places or 14/1 4 places I’d take the 20/1 3 places every time as giving up 6pts on the win just isn’t worth it but another thing to factor in is whether you get BOG or not. What I put up on the website is what I think is best given the prices available at the time. The days when EW terms were a standard across the board were much easier to know where you stand as a few will change place terms with a couple of NRs whereas other firms don’t. We have had examples recently of 14 runners becoming 12 so no 4 place but other firms still pay the 4th so you really need to be careful and know which firms do and don’t pay.
Good Luck
Gary
